How the Market Can Detect Its Own Mispricing - A News Sentiment Index to Detect Irrational Exuberance

2017 | HICSS | Citations: 0

Authors: Krinitz, Jonas; Alfano, Simon; Neumann, Dirk

Abstract: The emergence of big data analytics enables real time news analysis. Such analys ... Expand

Abstract: The emergence of big data analytics enables real time news analysis. Such analysis offers the possibility to instantly extract the sentiment conveyed by any newly published, textual information source. This paper investigates the existence of a causal relationship between news sentiment and stock prices. As such, we apply news sentiment analysis for unstructured, textual data to extract sentiment scores and utilize the Granger-causality test to determine the causal relationship between daily news sentiment scores and the corresponding stock market returns. Upon successfully identifying such a causal relationship with a time lag, we develop a real-time news sentiment index. This news sentiment index serves as a decision-support system in detecting a potential over- or undervaluation of stock prices given the news sentiment of available news sources. Thus, as a novelty, the news sentiment index serves as an early-warning system to detect irrational exuberance. Collapse

Methods: longitudinal research Granger causality time series analysis sentiment analysis autocorrelation analysis

Theories: theory of economic bubbles

Review of economic bubbles

2016 | International Journal of Information Management | Citations: 5

Authors: Chang, Victor; Newman, Russell; Walters, Robert John; Wills, Gary Brian

Abstract: a b s t r a c tThis paper investigates the history of economic bubbles and atte ... Expand

Abstract: a b s t r a c tThis paper investigates the history of economic bubbles and attempts to identify whether there are direct correlations between different bubbles. To support this research, literature has been consulted on historical and recent bubbles, theories surrounding speculation, the market for venture capital, and bubbles in the technology sector. By analysing a range of bubbles, rather than just those in the technology sector, general bubble-principles are also identified. All the economic bubbles are classified under "uncontrolled risk" and a recommended method that can detect and analyse full impacts by uncontrolled risk will be presented, together with future directions to be discussed. Collapse

Topics: web 2.0 innovation management systems operations business model

Methods: case study literature study

Theories: theory of economic bubbles

Model and experimental development for Business Data Science

2016 | International Journal of Information Management | Citations: 2

Authors: Newman, Russell; Chang, Victor; Walters, Robert John; Wills, Gary Brian

Abstract: a b s t r a c tWhile Data Science has become increasingly significant for busin ... Expand

Abstract: a b s t r a c tWhile Data Science has become increasingly significant for business strategies, operations, performance, efficiency and prediction, there is little work on this to provide a detailed guideline. We have proposed a Business Data Science (BDS) model that focuses on the model and experimental development that allows different types of functions, processes and roles to work together collaboratively for efficiency and performance improvements. Details with examples have been illustrated to show that BDS model can be a robust model. Future directions have been discussed to ensure that business intelligence, security, analytics and research contributions to BDS can be achieved. Collapse

Topics: web 2.0 data center website business intelligence

Methods: experiment simulation conceptual modelling literature study longitudinal survey

Theories: theory of economic bubbles

Web 2.0—The past and the future

2016 | International Journal of Information Management | Citations: 0

Authors: Newman, Russell; Chang, Victor; Walters, Robert John; Wills, Gary Brian

Abstract: a b s t r a c tAlthough it has been around for 11 years, it is still not clear ... Expand

Abstract: a b s t r a c tAlthough it has been around for 11 years, it is still not clear where Web 2.0 will lead. This paper presents a general discussion of past and recent trends that may positively influence the direction of Web 2.0, including cloud computing and other emerging business models. In order to move forward, Web 3.0 is proposed for the next generation of work that integrates Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things and security. We also present criteria and future direction for Web 3.0 to allow all services and people can stay connected with each other. Collapse

Topics: business model web service Facebook social media web3

Theories: theory of economic bubbles