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Unpacking the Black Box: A Cognitive Process Model of Escalation of Commitment in IS Project Management

2023 | International Conference on Business Informatics | Citations: 0
Authors: Marx, Carolin; Uebernickel, Falk

Abstract: In the plethora of challenges associated with managing Information Systems (IS) ... Expand

Abstract: In the plethora of challenges associated with managing Information Systems (IS), deciding when to persist or withdraw from a distressed IS project is of utmost importance. Distressed IS projects are particularly prone to Escalation of Commitment (EoC) -the tendency to persist with failing courses of action. To better understand how the cognitive "black box" behind this tendency unfolds, we uncovered 13 cognitive reasoning patterns and a cognitive process model based on 270 text-based reflections of 56 participants during a sequential decision-making simulation. Cognition differs between the four escalation phases regarding the temporal focus (retrospective, introspective, prospective), the underlying mechanism (starting momentum, path dependency, denial, perceived completion proximity), and the combination of cognitive reasoning patterns. The cognitive process model of EoC helps detangle the complexities of managing IS. Our findings also support IS managers in identifying signs of escalation and selecting the appropriate actions to turn distressed projects around. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: decision making IT project IT project management decision quality project productivity

Methods: business process modeling simulation qualitative coding

Theories: cognitive dissonance theory self justification theory punctuated equilibrium theory
Disentangling Emotional and Cognitive Factors of Escalation of Commitment: Evidence for a Psychophysiological Link

2023 | European Conference On Information Systems | Citations: 0
Authors: Marx, Carolin; Uebernickel, Falk

Abstract: Escalation of commitment -the tendency to persist with failing courses of actio ... Expand

Abstract: Escalation of commitment -the tendency to persist with failing courses of action -can determine whether a distressed Information Systems (IS) project can be turned around. To disentangle the emotional and cognitive factors that give rise to escalation we conducted a between-subject randomized controlled laboratory experiment with 75 Master, MBA, and Ph.D. students, including data triangulation between neurophysiological and behavioral measures. This study successfully replicates the bias in the context of IS project distress, provides evidence for a psychophysiological link, supports the predictions on the role of negative and complex emotional states of self-justification theory over coping theory, and adds to a better understanding of how escalation tendency changes over time due to learning effects. Our findings contribute to enhancing decision-making in uncertain environments by using cognitive and emotional markers and thereby provide the foundation for developing neuro-adaptive de-escalation strategies. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: decision making IT project artificial intelligence cloud computing decision support

Methods: regression analysis method simulation biometric measurement experiment descriptive statistic

Theories: self justification theory cognitive dissonance theory cognitive theory
The Effects of Quote Retweet on Subsequent Posting Behavior and Morality Expression on Social Media

2023 | HICSS | Citations: 0
Authors: Wu, Yan; Du, Qianzhou; Zhang, Xiaohui; Zhang, John

Abstract: Guided by the Threshold model and Self-justification theory, we propose and test ... Expand

Abstract: Guided by the Threshold model and Self-justification theory, we propose and test a research model regarding the impact of online discussion activity on users’ behaviors on social media. Specifically, we examine the effects of quote retweeting a tweet related to immigration policies and border issues on users’ subsequent posting behaviors and morality expression. In addition, we test the moderating effect of individual threshold level and behavior-opinion inconsistency on the main effect. Results indicate that individuals, who quote retweeted the selected-topic tweets, are likely to post more topic-related tweets and express more on morality. This impact can be strengthened when individuals have higher threshold levels or larger behavior-opinion inconsistency. These findings provide both theoretical and practical implications for social media governance. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: Twitter social media climate change pandemic criminality

Methods: experimental group propensity score matching natural language processing econometric modeling deep learning

Theories: self justification theory cognitive dissonance theory
When a growth mindset can backfire and cause escalation of commitment to a troubled information technology project
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2021 | Information Systems Journal | Citations: 4
Authors: Lee, Jong Seok; Keil, Mark; Wong, Kin Fai Ellick

Abstract: This research focuses on information technology (IT) project managers' growth mi ... Expand

Abstract: This research focuses on information technology (IT) project managers' growth mindset concerning IT project management (PM) ability and investigates how such a mindset can promote escalation of commitment to a troubled IT project. Specifically, we suggest that the growth mindset of IT PM ability promotes prospective achievement motivation and can lead IT project managers to escalate their commitment to an IT project despite negative feedback suggesting that the project may not be completed successfully. Through a series of three experiments with 351 IT project managers, we obtained consistent support for our hypotheses suggesting that the growth mindset of IT PM ability promotes IT project escalation and this effect is partially mediated by anticipated regret about project failure and anticipated likelihood of project success. In addition, in the three experiments we found that when the project involves an unfamiliar technology the indirect effect of the growth mindset of IT PM ability through anticipated likelihood of project success is stronger than when the project involves a familiar technology. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: project management IT project web page risk management decision making

Methods: experiment theory development parametric test statistical hypothesis test one-way ANOVA

Theories: agency theory prospect theory self justification theory
The effects of relative and criticism-based performance appraisals on task-level escalation in an IT project: a laboratory experiment
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2018 | European Journal of Information Systems | Citations: 0
Authors: Lee, Jong Seok; Keil, Mark

Abstract: While performance appraisals provide an opportunity for managers to review emplo ... Expand

Abstract: While performance appraisals provide an opportunity for managers to review employee performance, prior research points to potential negative consequences associated with performance appraisals. Specifically, prior IS research suggests that relative and criticism-based appraisals can have an undesirable impact on employee behaviour. Motivated by this, in this study we theorised and empirically investigated how relative and criticism-based appraisals can influence an IT project member’s tendency to continue working on a task despite encountering serious setbacks (i.e., task-level escalation). To shed light on the underlying mechanisms through which appraisals influence task-level escalation, we proposed and tested two mediating pathways based on goal orientation theory and prospect theory. In a laboratory experiment, we found that a relative appraisal led to greater task-level escalation as compared to an absolute appraisal. Proving goal orientation and avoiding goal orientation mediated this relationship. In addition, we found that a criticism-based appraisal led to greater task-level escalation as compared to a praise-based appraisal. Risk propensity and self-esteem mediated this relationship. Lastly, we found that the effects of both a relative appraisal and a criticism-based appraisal on task-level escalation were significantly different from a control group that did not involve any form of performance appraisal. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: IT project project management self efficacy software developer programming language

Methods: experimental group parametric test theory development ANOVA experiment

Theories: prospect theory goal orientation theory self justification theory agency theory
The Impact of Creativity and Information Load on Escalation of Commitment

2015 | European Conference On Information Systems | Citations: 1
Authors: Roetzel, Peter G

Abstract: This experimental study analyzes how two key factors, information load and creat ... Expand

Abstract: This experimental study analyzes how two key factors, information load and creativity, influence decision making in escalation situations in which decision makers reinvest further resources in a losing course of action even when information indicates that the IT project is performing poorly and should be discontinued. Whereas previous studies focus on the complexity of information, this study investigates how different quantities of information influence escalation of commitment and how information load interacts with a decision maker’s interpretation of negative feedback regarding earlier decisions. In situations in which escalation of commitment can occur, information load is relevant for decision making for two reasons. First, in escalation situations in which decision makers face negative feedback, information load exacerbates the tendency to escalate commitment. Second, when an escalation tendency is absent, information load can lead to a decision to continue a losing course of action, which can be mistaken for escalation of commitment. Furthermore, decision makers with a higher level of creativity tend to invest more than decision makers with a lower level of creativity. Surprisingly, creative decision makers do not change their behavior when facing negative consequences while less creative decision makers show an escalation of commitment tendency. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: project management IT project decision making information overload resource allocation

Methods: experiment ANOVA parametric test experimental group survey

Theories: self justification theory cognitive load theory psychological theory
Understanding overbidding behavior in C2C auctions: an escalation theory perspective
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2012 | European Journal of Information Systems | Citations: 10
Authors: Park, Sang Cheol; Keil, Mark; Kim, Jong UK; Bock, Gee-Woo

Abstract: With millions of online auctions per day, sites such as eBay have revolutionized ... Expand

Abstract: With millions of online auctions per day, sites such as eBay have revolutionized how consumers buy and sell goods. Despite the benefits associated with online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) auctions, there can be drawbacks. Consumers who purchase goods in online auctions may get caught up in auction fever, causing them to engage in overbidding, and sometimes leading to what has been referred to as the winner's curse. While several theoretical explanations have been proposed to explain overbidding behavior (OB), there has been little empirical work in this area. Drawing on escalation theory, this study develops and tests a model of the OB exhibited by individuals in online auction settings. Our model posits that certain escalation drivers such as sunk cost (SC), the completion effect (CE), and self-justification affect an individual's willingness to continue bidding (WCB) which, in turn, influences OB. Survey data collected from 250 online auction participants were used to test the model using partial least squares analysis. SC and CE were found to have significant impacts on OB that were either partially or fully mediated by WCB. We also found that competition intensity moderates the relationship between willingness to continue and OB such that when competition is more intense, the relationship becomes even stronger. The implications of these findings for both research and practice are discussed. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: online auction marketing management real-time bidding accounting technology adoption

Methods: survey partial least squares regression data transformation factor analysis regression analysis method

Theories: escalation theory self justification theory prospect theory cognitive dissonance theory
Why Software Projects Escalate: An Empirical Analysis and Test of Four Theoretical Models

2000 | Management Information Systems Quarterly | Citations: 158
Authors: Keil, Mark; Mann, Joan; Rai, Arun

Abstract: Software projects can often spiral out of control to become "runaway systems" t ... Expand

Abstract: Software projects can often spiral out of control to become "runaway systems" that far exceed original budget and schedule projections. The behavior that underlies many runaway systems can best be characterized as "escalation of commitment to a failing course of action." The objectives of this study were to: (1) understand the extent to which IS projects are prone to escalate, (2) compare the outcomes of projects that escalate with those that do not, and (3) test whether constructs associated with different theories of escalation can be used to discriminate between projects that escalate and those that do not. A survey was administered to IS audit and control professionals and, to establish a baseline for comparison, the survey was designed to gather data on projects that did not escalate as well as those that did escalate.The results of our research suggest that between 30% and 40% of all IS projects exhibit some degree of escalation. Projects that escalated had Keil et al./Software Project Escalation 632 MIS Quarterly Vol. 24 No. 4/December 2000project outcomes that were significantly worse in terms of perceived implementation performance and perceived budget/schedule performance, as compared to projects that did not escalate. Using constructs from theories that have been used to explain the escalation phenomenon, we were able to test various logistic regression models for their ability to discriminate between projects that escalate and those that do not. To construct our models, we explored constructs derived from selfjustification theory, prospect theory, agency theory, and approach avoidance theory. While constructs derived from all four theories were significant in logistic regression models, the completion effect construct derived from approach avoidance theory provided the best classification of projects, correctly classifying over 70% of both escalated and non-escalated projects. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: IT project logistics management project productivity accounting project management

Methods: survey survey design regression analysis method logistic regression chi squared test

Theories: agency theory prospect theory lemon market theory escalation theory self justification theory
Understanding Runaway Information Technology Projects: Results from an International Research Program Based on Escalation Theory

1994 | Journal of Management Information Systems | Citations: 13
Authors: Keil, Mark; Mixon, Richard; Saarinen, Timo; Tuunainen, Virpi

Abstract: Information technology (IT) projects can fail for any number of reasons, and can ... Expand

Abstract: Information technology (IT) projects can fail for any number of reasons, and can result in considerable financial losses for the organizations that undertake them. One pattern of failure that has been observed but seldom studied is the runaway project that takes on a life of its own. Such projects exhibit characteristics that are consistent with the broader phenomenon known as escalating commitment to a failing course of action. Several theories have been offered to explain this phenomenon, including self-justification theory and the so-called sunk cost effect which can be explained by prospect theory. This paper discusses the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether the phenomenon of escalating commitment could be observed in an IT context. Multiple experiments conducted within and across cultures suggest that a high level of sunk cost may influence decision makers to escalate their commitment to an IT project. In addition to discussing this and other findings from an ongoing stream of research, the paper focuses on the challenges faced in carrying out the experiments. Collapse

Semantic filters: self justification theory

Topics: IT project project management missing data IT development project research and development

Methods: experiment experimental group laboratory experiment parametric test ANOVA

Theories: self justification theory prospect theory escalation theory

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Found 9 articles

Unpacking the Black Box: A Cognitive Process Model of Escalation of Commitment in IS Project Management

Disentangling Emotional and Cognitive Factors of Escalation of Commitment: Evidence for a Psychophysiological Link

The Effects of Quote Retweet on Subsequent Posting Behavior and Morality Expression on Social Media

When a growth mindset can backfire and cause escalation of commitment to a troubled information technology project

The effects of relative and criticism-based performance appraisals on task-level escalation in an IT project: a laboratory experiment

The Impact of Creativity and Information Load on Escalation of Commitment

Understanding overbidding behavior in C2C auctions: an escalation theory perspective

Why Software Projects Escalate: An Empirical Analysis and Test of Four Theoretical Models

Understanding Runaway Information Technology Projects: Results from an International Research Program Based on Escalation Theory