A Group Decision-Making Methodology with Incomplete Individual Beliefs Applied to e-Democracy

2015 | Group Decision and Negotiation | Citations: 0

Authors: Mateos, Alfonso; Jiménez-Martín, Antonio; Ríos-Insua, Sixto

Abstract: We consider the situation where there are several alternatives for investing a q ... Expand

Abstract: We consider the situation where there are several alternatives for investing a quantity of money to achieve a set of objectives. The choice of which alternative to apply depends on how citizens and political representatives perceive that such objectives should be achieved. All citizens with the right to vote can express their preferences in the decision-making process. These preferences may be incomplete. Political representatives represent the citizens who have not taken part in the decision-making process. The weight corresponding to political representatives depends on the number of citizens that have intervened in the decision-making process. The methodology we propose needs the participants to specify for each alternative how they rate the different attributes and the relative importance of attributes. On the basis of this information an expected utility interval is output for each alternative. To do this, an evidential reasoning approach is applied. This approach improves the insightfulness and rationality of the decision-making process using a belief decision matrix for problem modeling and the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. Finally, we propose using the distances of each expected utility interval from the maximum and the minimum utilities to rank the alternative set. The basic idea is that an alternative is ranked first if its distance to the maximum utility is the smallest, and its distance to the minimum utility is the greatest. If only one of these conditions is satisfied, a distance ratio is then used. Collapse

Topics: decision making decision support system societal evaluation criteria

Methods: computational algorithm non linear optimization trade-off analysis method evidential reasoning approach

Maximizing customer satisfaction through an online recommendation system: A novel associative classification model

2010 | Decision Support Systems | Citations: 28

Authors: Jiang, Yuanchun; Shang, Jennifer; Liu, Yezheng

Abstract: Offering online personalized recommendation services helps improve customer sati ... Expand

Abstract: Offering online personalized recommendation services helps improve customer satisfaction. Conventionally, a recommendation system is considered as a success if clients purchase the recommended products. However, the act of purchasing itself does not guarantee satisfaction and a truly successful recommendation system should be one that maximizes the customer's after-use gratification. By employing an innovative associative classification method, we are able to predict a customer's ultimate pleasure. Based on customer's characteristics, a product will be recommended to the potential buyer if our model predicts his/her satisfaction level will be high. The feasibility of the proposed recommendation system is validated through laptop Inspiron 1525. Collapse

Topics: recommender system laptop computer database system marketing management electronic commerce

Methods: computational algorithm artificial neural network classification method support vector machine decision tree classification

Using Dempster–Shafer theory and real options theory to assess competing strategies for implementing IT infrastructures: A case study

2008 | Decision Support Systems | Citations: 0

Authors: Hilhorst, Cokky; Ribbers, Piet; van Heck, Eric; Smits, Martin

Abstract: This paper discusses the selection of a preferred strategy for implementing an I ... Expand

Abstract: This paper discusses the selection of a preferred strategy for implementing an IT infrastructure from a range of competing alternatives. The model presented here combines the use of an evidential reasoning approach based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of belief functions with real options analysis. We discuss the combined use of both theories and show that combining the Dempster–Shafer theory with real options analysis provides flexible support that takes account of the multi-dimensional nature of implementation decisions. We also go into the fundamental requirements that need to be met when selecting a strategy for implementing an IT infrastructure. We conclude by outlining a number of the model's limitations. Collapse

Topics: real option information technology infrastructure electronic human resource management decision making systems implementation

Methods: sensitivity analysis evidential reasoning approach trade-off analysis method qualitative interview computational algorithm

Theories: Dempster-Shafer theory real options theory

Special Issue: Crossing Boundaries in Information Systems Research

2006 | Journal of Management Information Systems | Citations: 0

Authors: Briggs, Robert O.; Nunamaker Jr., Jay F.; Sprague Jr., Ralph H.

Abstract: The article introduces a series of articles related to information management. ... Expand

Abstract: The article introduces a series of articles related to information management. Collapse

Topics: self efficacy implicit knowledge agile software development IT security

Methods: laboratory experiment survey longitudinal research trade-off analysis method evidential reasoning approach

Theories: Dempster-Shafer theory

Combining real options and multiattribute decision analysis to define the favourable

2006 | European Conference On Information Systems | Citations: 0

Authors: Hilhorst, Cocky

Abstract: IT infrastructure implementation projects have to deal with many uncertainties a ... Expand

Abstract: IT infrastructure implementation projects have to deal with many uncertainties and risks. A favourable implementation strategy therefore needs to reduce uncertainties and risks with regard to the IT infrastructure investment. The complexity in these type of decisions relates to the fact that different types of uncertainties and risks and quantitative and qualitative information need to be incorporated in a sound, transparent and pragmatic way. In this paper a decision making model for defining a favourable implementation strategy is introduced. The approach integrates the utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis (MADA) with real options analysis. Using real data from a public organization, the analysis framework is used to guide an investment decision for a large multi-staged, cost reduction IT infrastructure implementation. We compare the presented framework with the net present value analysis, the real options analysis, and the MADA framework. The paper concludes on how the presented approach can be used to improve the evaluation of IT infrastructure implementation strategy decisions and discusses the implications for further research. Collapse

Topics: real option information technology infrastructure decision making systems development systems implementation

Methods: qualitative interview evidential reasoning approach trade-off analysis method case study sensitivity analysis

Theories: real options theory

An Information Systems Security Risk Assessment Model Under the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions

2006 | Journal of Management Information Systems | Citations: 0

Authors: Lili Sun; Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.

Abstract: This study develops an alternative methodology for the risk analysis of informat ... Expand

Abstract: This study develops an alternative methodology for the risk analysis of information systems security (ISS), an evidential reasoning approach under the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The approach has the following important dimensions. First, the evidential reasoning approach provides a rigorous, structured manner to incorporate relevant ISS risk factors, related countermeasures, and their interrelationships when estimating ISS risk. Second, the methodology employs the belief function definition of risk—that is, ISS risk is the plausibility of ISS failures. The proposed approach has other appealing features, such as facilitating cost-benefit analyses to help promote efficient ISS risk management. The paper elaborates the theoretical concepts and provides operational guidance for implementing the method. The method is illustrated using a hypothetical example from the perspective of management and a real-world example from the perspective of external assurance providers. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the impact of important parameters on the model's results. Collapse

Topics: privacy computer hardware electronic commerce cost benefit analysis IT risk management

Methods: sensitivity analysis trade-off analysis method evidential reasoning approach literature study field study

Theories: Dempster-Shafer theory

Evidential Reasoning for WebTrust Assurance Services

1999 | Journal of Management Information Systems | Citations: 6

Authors: Srivastava, Rajendra P.; Mock, Theodore J.

Abstract: We study two aspects of assurance services in electronic commerce. The first dea ... Expand

Abstract: We study two aspects of assurance services in electronic commerce. The first deals with the type(s) of evidential networks that will allow a professional accountant to provide assurance. Here, we develop an evidential network model for "WebTrust Assurance," a service being provided by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CICA). Our model augments the AICPA/CICA approach and provides goals, subgoals and evidence relevant to the overall assurance to be provided. The aggregation of evidence and the resolution of uncertainties follow the belief-function approach. Next we develop a decision-theoretic model for the assurance-planning problem. Our approach is based on estimating the expected value of providing various levels of assurance and is illustrated with several different scenarios that may be faced in practice. We also consider the role of ambiguity in decision situations such as planning WebTrust engagements and calculate bounds in expected value based on whether auditors are conservative or not in their approach to risk. Collapse

Topics: data protection computer software accounting electronic commerce

Methods: evidential reasoning approach trade-off analysis method

Theories: utility theory expected utility theory