Uncertainty Analysis in Group Decisions through Interval Ordinal Priority Approach

2023 | Group Decision and Negotiation | Citations: 0

Authors: Mahmoudi, Amin; Javed, Saad Ahmed

Abstract: In multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, ranking alternatives is us ... Expand

Abstract: In multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, ranking alternatives is usually the end. However, in real life, it is rarely an end in itself and serves as a means to an end. Further, in real-life problems, the selection of alternatives is usually made with the aid of unique experts, and thus minimizing the influence of the uncertainty of their subjective judgements on the optimality of the decisions is a critical issue. The current study proposes a novel Interval Ordinal Priority Approach to objectively solve these and other issues by allowing uncertainty analysis and quantification. The study argues that when the model’s input contains uncertainty (even if represented by crisp numbers), expecting the output to be free from uncertainty is an unrealistic conjecture. Therefore, unlike the conventional MCDM models producing crisp weights, the proposed approach yields interval weights with the length of the interval representing the uncertainty (inconsistency among the experts’ judgements). Also, instead of resorting to the subjective measurement of thresholds to qualify or disqualify a set of inputs based on the degree of uncertainty, a novel objective measure of threshold is put forward. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated through illustrative examples and comparative analysis. Later, the study is concluded with the implications for real-world decision-making. Collapse

Topics: decision making decision support system

Methods: descriptive statistic cross sectional research statistical hypothesis test trade-off analysis method Grey relational analysis

Theories: mathematical theory

Applying Grey Relational Analysis and Grey Decision-Making to evaluate the relationship between company attributes and its financial performance—A case study of venture capital enterprises in Taiwan

2007 | Decision Support Systems | Citations: 0

Authors: Kung, Chaang-Yung; Wen, Kun-Li

Abstract: For the study on the financial performance, there are many limitations in using ... Expand

Abstract: For the study on the financial performance, there are many limitations in using traditional statistic methods. The grey system theory proposed by the study is to supplement the limitations of using traditional statistic methods and it's more suitable to evaluate the financial performance of business. This study used six financial indicators to classify twenty items of financial ratios as research variables through the Globalization Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), to find the significant financial ratio variables and other financial indicators affecting the financial performance of venture capital enterprises in Taiwan, and it applied Grey Decision-Making (GDM) to arrange the total performances of the sample venture capital enterprises in order. Finally, this study uses GM(0, N) model to analyze the six variables of firm attributes and the differences between using different firms' attribute variables and financial performance of venture capital enterprises as the result. Collapse

Topics: financial performance decision making

Methods: trade-off analysis method Grey relational analysis